2023 Oscars Best Documentary Feature Predictions

By admin On Feb 21, 2023

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Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages are Davis’ assessment of the current standings of the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any film or performance. Like any organization or body that votes, each individual category is fluid and subject to change. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

LAST UPDATED: Feb. 21, 2023

2023 Oscars Predictions: Best Documentary Feature

NAVALNY, Alexei Navalny (right), 2022. © Fathom Events / Courtesy Everett Collection
Courtesy Everett Collection

CATEGORY COMMENTARY: Sara Dosa won the Directors Guild of America Awards, where The guild crowned “Fire of Love” from National Geographic Documentary Films and Neon. A feel-good documentary that recalls the story of Katia and Maurice Kraftt, two scientists who die in a volcanic explosion.

On the BAFTA side of the awards circuit, Daniel Roher’s “Navalny” emerged victorious with the Brits, snagging the documentary feature prize over Oscar nominees “All That Breathes” from Shaunak Sek, “All the Beauty and the Bloodshed” from Laura Poitras and “Fire of Love.”

This remains a wide-open race, where even Simon Lereng Wilmont’s “A House Made of Splinters,” which takes a harrowing look at workers of a home for children awaiting custody decisions, could hit the right chord with voters (especially parents).

Let’s see what the PGA Awards choose where three of the Oscar nominees are among the selections — “All That Breathes,” “Fire of Love” and “Navalny.”

See the latest film predictions, in all 23 categories, in one place on Variety’s Oscars Collective. To see the ranked predictions for each individual category, visit Variety’s Oscars Hub.

See the 2022-2023 Awards Season calendar for all key dates and timelines.

ALL AWARDS CONTENDERS AND RANKINGS:

And The Predicted Nominees Are:
Rank	Film	Director(s) and Producer(s)	Distributor
1	“Fire of Love”	Sara Dosa, Shane Boris and Ina Fichman	National Geographic Documentary Films/Neon
1	Intrepid scientists and lovers Katia and Maurice Krafft died in a volcanic explosion doing the very thing that brought them together: unraveling the mysteries of volcanoes by capturing the most explosive imagery ever recorded.
2	“Navalny”	Daniel Roher, Odessa Rae, Diane Becker, Melanie Miller and Shane Boris	CNN/Warner Bros.
2	Follows the man who survived an assassination attempt by poisoning with a lethal nerve agent in August 2020. During his months-long recovery he makes shocking discoveries about the attempt on his life and decides to return home
3	“All That Breathes”	Shaunak Sen, Aman Mann and Teddy Leifer	HBO Documentary Films / Sideshow
3	The darkening backdrop of Delhi’s apocalyptic air and escalating violence, two brothers devote their lives to protect one casualty of the turbulent times: the bird known as the Black Kite.
4	“All the Beauty and the Bloodshed”	Laura Poitras, Howard Gertler, John Lyons, Nan Goldin and Yoni Golijov	Neon
4	It follows the life of artist Nan Goldin and the downfall of the Sackler family, the pharmaceutical dynasty who was greatly responsible for the opioid epidemic’s unfathomable death toll.
5	“A House Made of Splinters”	Simon Lereng Wilmont and Monica Hellström	Giant Pictures
5	Children and staff in a special kind of home: an institution for children who have been removed from their homes while awaiting court custody decisions. Staff do their best to make the time children have there safe and supportive.

2023 Academy Awards Predictions

The 95th Oscars ceremony will be held at the Dolby Theatre and televised live on ABC on Sunday, March 12, 2023.

2022 category winner: “Summer of Soul” (Onyx/Searchlight Pictures)

About Variety Awards Circuit:

Variety’s unmatched coverage gives its readership unbeatable exposure in print and online and provides inside reports on all the contenders in this year’s awards season races. In addition to predictions, the section includes — Awards Circuit Column, a weekly analysis dissecting the trends and contenders in the race; Awards Circuit Podcast, a weekly series featuring interviews with the top contenders in the awards race and an expert roundtable discussion with Variety’s leading editors and columnists; Awards Circuit Predictions Video Series, a deep dive into specific categories, led by the leading pundits.

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